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ABSTRACT

Kinney et al. 2006

Kinney, P., J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, C. Hogrefe, W. Solecki, K. Knowlton, C. Small, B. Lynn, K. Civerolo, J. Ku, R. Goldberg, and C. Oliveri, 2006: Assessing potential public health impacts of changing climate and land uses: The New York Climate and Health Project. In Regional Climate Change and Variability. M. Ruth, K. Donaghy, and P. Kirshen, Eds., New Horizons in Regional Science. Edward Elgar.

Over the next 50 years, a rapidly urbanizing world population will confront significant environmental change caused by a warming climate and rapid conversion of land. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chnge (IPCC) Third Assessment proects that global averaged surface temperature will increase by 1.4-5.8°C (2.4-10.4°F) by 2100. Simultaneously, human populations are carrying out a rapid and substantial conversion of land from natural to human dominated uses. To be responsible stewards of both human health and biological diversity in the coming century, societies will need to develop and institutionalize better models describing and predicting the interactions between these global drivers and the health of the planet. The objective of the project described here is to begin to build and apply a modeling framework that assesses potetional future public health impacts of both climate change and land use change in the New York metropolitan region.

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