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ABSTRACT

Shindell et al. 2005

Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, N. Bell, and G.A. Schmidt, 2005: An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04803, doi:10.1029/2004GL021900.

We simulate atmospheric composition changes in response to increased methane and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions from the preindustrial to present-day in a coupled chemistry-aerosol-climate model. The global annual average composition response to all emission changes is within 10% of the sum of the responses to individual emissions types, a more policy-relevant quantity. This small non-linearity between emission types permits attribution of past global mean methane and ozone radiative forcings to specific emissions despite the well-known non-linear response to emissions of a single type. The emissions-based view indicates that methane emissions have contributed a forcing of ~0.8-0.9 W/m2, nearly double the abundance-based value, while the forcing from other ozone precursors has been quite small (~-0.1 for NOx, ~0.2 for CO + VOCs).

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