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ABSTRACT

Adams et al. 1995

Adams, R.M., R.A. Fleming, C.-C. Chang, B.A. McCarl, and C. Rosenzweig, 1995: A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. Climatic Change, 30, 147-167, doi:10.1007/BF01091839.

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climatic change on U.S. agriculture. Changes to crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climatic change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive effect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.

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