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ABSTRACT

Gornitz 1992

Gornitz, V., 1992: Mean sea level changes in the recent past. In Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications. R.A. Warrick, E.M. Barrow, and T.M.L. Wigley, Eds. Cambridge University Press, pp. 25-44.

Based on at least sixteen studies of tide-gauge data, estimates of global mean sea level change during the last 100 years indicate a rate of rise of 0.5-3.0 mm/yr, with most estimates within the range of 1.0-2.0 mm/yr. The agreement among these independent analyses, in spite of the diversity of sampling strategies and data processing techniques, lends support to the notion that the observed sea level rise represents a true eustatic change. Other supportive evidence includes: an apparent increase in the rate of rise over the last 100 years as compared to the preceding 100 years, as observed in long European tide-gauge records; and generally increased rates of rise over the last 100 years as compared to rates of change over the past few thousand years, as estimated from geological and other data.

However, estimates of mean sea level rise are subject to large uncertainties due, for example, to problems of data quality and geographical distribution, vertical land movements (resulting particularly from glacio-isostasy and neo-tectonics), atmospheric and oceanographic effects, and anthropogenic activity (water and sediment impoundment reservoirs and fluid withdrawal). Such effects vary widely in their relative importance; methods of filtering some of their contaminating signals are discussed in the paper.

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