Spar et al. 1978
Spar, S., J.J. Notario, and W.J. Quirk, 1978: An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model. M. Weather Rev., 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.
Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the GISS model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions — a "control" state and three random perturbations thereof — to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The "noise level" of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.
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Spar, S., Notario, J.J., and Quirk, W.J.: An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model, M. Weather Rev., 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2, 1978.
Spar, S., J.J. Notario, and W.J. Quirk (1978), An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model, M. Weather Rev., 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.
Spar, S., J.J. Notario, and W.J. Quirk, 1978: An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model. M. Weather Rev., 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.
Spar, S., Notario, J.J., & Quirk, W.J. 1978, M. Weather Rev., 106, 89, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.
Spar S, Notario JJ, Quirk WJ. An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model, M Weather Rev 1978;106:89-100. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.
S. Spar, J.J. Notario, W.J. Quirk, M. Weather Rev. 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2 (1978).
