Yonekura and Hall 2011
, and , 2011: A statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-dependent cyclogenesis. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 50, 1725-1739, doi:10.1175/2011JAMC2617.1.
A new statistical model for western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) cyclogenesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally-resolved TC landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on IBTrACS historical data for the WNP from 1945-2007. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates to historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic structure of landfall rates. WNP cyclogenesis is known to be influenced by ENSO. This dependence is incorporated in the model's genesis component, and use the model to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift eastward in cyclogenesis and a modest overall reduction in annual counts with increasing ENSO index vale. On almost all regions of coast landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Niña).