Publication Abstracts

Hall and Yonekura 2013

Hall, T., and E. Yonekura, 2013: North-American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study. J. Climate, 26, 8422-8439, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00756.1.

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete lifecycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North-American Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea-surface temperature (SST): (1), SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season, and (2), this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed "relSST"). Here, we focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major-hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, due primarily to a basin-wide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major-hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the US mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.