Hansen et al. 2002
, , , , , D. Koch, I. Tegen, , , B. Santer, P. Stone, T. Novakov, L. Thomason, R. Wang, Y. Wang, D. Jacob, S. Hollandsworth, L. Bishop, J. Logan, A. Thompson, R. Stolarski, J. Lean, R. Willson, S. Levitus, J. Antonov, N. Rayner, D. Parker, and J. Christy, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D18, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. We illustrate the global response to these forcings for the SI2000 model with specified sea surface temperature (SST) and with a simple Q-flux ocean, thus helping to characterize the effectiveness of each forcing. The forcing data cover the period 1951-2000. The climate simulations are extended to 2050 for two forcing scenarios. The results suggest that observed global temperature change in the past 50 years is primarily a response to radiative forcings. It is also inferred that the planet is now out of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W/m2 and that additional global warming of about 0.5°C is already "in the pipeline".